Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Brian Tyree Henry in ‘Dope Thief’
Courtesy of Apple TV+
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie Commentary (Updated June 12, 2025): Despite the merging of limited series and TV movie performances, the lead acting races in these categories are shrinking. Only 48 actors were submitted — compared to 70 and 92 in 2024 — meaning only five nominees will be selected from each category.
Among the most prominent contenders are Stephen Graham for “Adolesence,” Paul Giamatti for “Black Mirror” and Colin Farrell for “The Penguin.” Meanwhile, rising names like Aaron Pierre from “Rebel Ridge” and the duo of Cooper Koch and Nicholas Alexander Chavez for “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” could break through and redefine the category’s generational reach.
Previous nominees like Brian Tyree Henry from “Dope Thief” and Colman Domingo from “The Madness” are also popular among peer group voters.
The Emmys eligibility period ends on May 31. Nomination voting runs from June 12 to June 23, with official nominations set to be announced July 15.
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And the Predicted Contenders Are:
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More Information (Lead Actor Limited)
2024 category winner: Richard Gadd, “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
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About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.
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